[SMM Daily Review] there are ups and downs in the non-ferrous market. Shanghai zinc has fallen by more than 2%. Shanghai gold is slightly red. Last crude oil fell by more than 2%.

SMM1 March 22: the non-ferrous metals market has its ups and downs today. By the end of the day, international copper fell 0.57%, Shanghai copper fell 0.61%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.1%, Shanghai lead fell 0.66%, Shanghai zinc fell 2.51%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.13%, Shanghai tin rose 1.83%. In terms of lead, in terms of fundamentals, in terms of supply side, in terms of primary lead, except for the suspension of production and overhaul in Minshan, Henan Province, the production of other smelters is stable. Although the current domestic epidemic affects logistics and transportation, the production of the smelter has not been affected, and there is no plan to have an early holiday at the smelter in the near future. In terms of recycled lead, some recycled lead enterprises will stop production and have holidays after January 20, and the number of enterprises taking holidays next week may increase, generally speaking, the supply is tight. On the consumer side, the downstream lead-acid battery factory is still in the pre-festival preparation period, but most of the downstream have completed the preliminary preparation, and the first batch of battery enterprises will have a holiday next week, and the pace of follow-up storage may slow down. On the whole, the supply is tight and the stock of the downstream practice is tight, and the lead price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but with a certain inventory of lead ingots in the early stage of the lower reaches, lead prices are expected to continue to rise with a lack of momentum, mainly due to high shocks.

[SMM brief Review] the stop resistance level of Shanghai lead closed down by 0.66%, but it was still high in the short term.

As for copper, according to SMM research, the price difference of fine waste as of January 21, 2021 was 3202 yuan / ton, an increase of 249 yuan / ton over the previous day, reaching a four-year high. However, on the contrary, the domestic electrolytic copper inventory shows the phenomenon of continuous de-stocking, and the spot market is also in the pattern of rising water. SMM immediately carried out market research and learned that there are two main causes of the contradiction, one is that with the gradual weakening of consumption since December, the marginal effect of fine waste substitution weakens, and secondly, the logic of de-deposting of domestic electrolytic copper is mainly disturbed by the supply side, so even when the domestic operating rate consumption is weaker than the previous month in December and January, the reduction on the supply side is greater than that on the demand side. In addition, since 2020, a large number of non-standard and unregistered copper has flowed into the domestic market to some extent to replace the demand for refined copper, squeezing a small amount of scrap copper market.

"[SMM Analysis] interpretation of the mystery of the copper market: it is still difficult to realize the replacement of fine waste by widening the price difference between fine waste and fine waste to more than 3000 yuan.

For the black system, the thread fell by 0.6%, the hot coil fell by 0.8%, the coking coal fell by 0.95%, the coke rose by 0.76%, and the iron ore fell by 0.48%. In terms of hot coil, the hot coil still continues the trend of accumulating storage, and the accumulation rate is faster than in previous years. However, it is worth noting that this week, under the influence of the pressure on the port, the data are confusing, which makes the market mistakenly think that the downstream demand is supporting the accumulation pool. In fact, according to SMM understanding, part of the downstream has been early holiday, the recent demand for hot volume is relatively weak. And with the repetition of the epidemic and the approach of the Spring Festival, the phenomenon of holidays downstream will become more common, and the demand for hot volumes will further weaken. At this time, the northern pressure port resources will reach the market one after another, accelerating the accumulation of social inventory, which will greatly suppress the spot price at that time.

Crude oil fell 2.58% in the previous period, while international oil prices fell, falling further from an 11-month high set last week on fears that China's new epidemic restrictions will dampen fuel demand in the world's largest oil importer. The rebound in Chinese fuel demand provided support for the rally at the end of last year, but that support waned as a new wave of outbreaks led to new epidemic restrictions.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.19% and Shanghai silver fell 0.58%. International spot gold prices fell on Friday as US bond yields rose slightly, but with the help of a weaker dollar and bets on more stimulus measures, gold prices are expected to rise the most in five weeks. Longer-term Treasury yields rose in line with inflation expectations on Thursday as markets focused on the prospect of President Joe Biden's administration increasing bond supply.

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[stock market close] A-share differentiation and operation Lithium, Cobalt and other resource stocks rose sharply

The index is widely divided, the gem index rose more than 2%, individual stocks fell, more than 3000 shares closed green, up more than 9% stocks more than 80, the market profit effect is general. On the plate, the internal differentiation of the Baotuan plate, the upstream lithium, cobalt and other resource stocks rose sharply, the photovoltaic plate showed strong performance in the fields of silicon material, silicon wafer and inverter, and the theme was also greatly differentiated. Novel coronavirus detection, e-cigarette, shipping and other plates pulled up, semiconductor chips, games, coal, securities and other plates weakened; On individual stocks, core stocks such as Haikang Weiwei, Ayre Ophthalmology and General Strategy Medical continued to reach new highs, while medium-high prices such as Xianghe Industrial and Nanguo Real Estate fell to the limit, resulting in a money-losing effect. On the disk, novel coronavirus testing, e-cigarettes, animal vaccines and other plates led the increase, property management, games, coal and other plates led the decline. As of the close, the Prev index fell 0.40% to close at 3606 points; the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.70% to close at 15628 points; and the gem index rose 2.27% to close at 3358 points. The net outflow of Shanghai shares is 797 million, while that of Shenzhen stocks is 1.222 billion. "View details

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